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The Middle East: Hope for Peace:
The Abraham Accords: Blueprint for a Peaceful and Prosperous Middle East
by Mr. Alberto Cossu, MBA International Management Consultant & Geopolitical Analyst Sassari, Italy
Link for Citation Purposes: https://bwwsociety.org/journal/archive/the-abraham-accords.htm |
Introduction
On the verge of a potential war between Iran and the United States, it is crucial to recognize the significant progress achieved in the Middle East through the signing of the Abraham Accords. These agreements, brokered and signed during the first Trump administration, stand as one of its most notable diplomatic achievements. The Biden administration, acknowledging their strategic value, continued to support and build upon them.
The Abraham Accords represent a historic breakthrough, as they normalized diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab states, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. This normalization process has opened new avenues for economic cooperation, technological exchange, and security collaboration, marking a decisive shift away from decades of hostility and isolation.
Crucially, the Accords envision a future Middle East rooted in peace and mutual prosperity. They demonstrate that dialogue and pragmatic engagement are possible, even in a region long defined by conflict. However, it is important to note that the Accords did not resolve the longstanding Israeli-Palestinian issue. The Palestinian question remains at the heart of regional tensions, and many observers agree that a comprehensive solution will only be possible when all Arab countries—most notably the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia—establish normal diplomatic relations with Israel.
Saudi Arabia’s potential participation is widely regarded as the linchpin for broader regional peace. The normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia would not only further isolate rejectionist actors, but also create the necessary diplomatic momentum to address Palestinian aspirations for statehood. Until such a development occurs, the Abraham Accords should be seen as a starting point—a foundation upon which future negotiations and reconciliation efforts can be built once the current conflict subsides.
The inception of the Abraham Accords and the vision they embody—a peaceful, cooperative Middle East—remain of paramount importance. Only when countries currently opposed to normalization are willing to enter into genuine negotiations and pursue reasonable compromises will it be possible to resolve the Palestinian issue and achieve lasting peace.
It is equally important to recognize that Iran has consistently positioned itself as a staunch opponent of the Abraham Accords. Tehran views the normalization of relations between Israel and Arab states as a direct threat to its regional influence and has actively sought to undermine the process through both rhetoric and support for proxy groups hostile to Israel and its new partners. The Iranian leadership perceives the Accords as an attempt to create a strategic alliance aimed at containing its ambitions and isolating it within the Middle East. This opposition has manifested in increased support for groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah, and in efforts to disrupt the ongoing process of regional integration.
In summary, while the Abraham Accords do not provide an immediate solution to every challenge facing the region, their establishment marks a pivotal step towards a more peaceful and interconnected Middle East. Their true potential will only be realized if, after the end of the current hostilities, all regional actors—including those who are currently opposed—choose negotiation and compromise over confrontation. Only then can the vision of a stable, prosperous, and peaceful Middle East, as envisaged by the Abraham Accords, become a reality.
Historical Context: From Conflict to Cooperation
The Abraham Accords, promoted and signed under the Trump administration in September 2020 by Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and later joined by Morocco and Sudan, represent a historic milestone in the diplomatic and strategic landscape of the Middle East and the Mediterranean. These agreements, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states, have not only altered decades-old enmities but have also opened new avenues for economic, technological, and security cooperation. Their significance has become even more pronounced amid the ongoing tensions and open conflict between Iran and Israel, which threaten to destabilize the entire region. In this context, the Abraham Accords could serve as a blueprint for a peaceful and prosperous Middle East, provided they are nurtured and expanded.
To appreciate the transformative potential of the Abraham Accords, it is essential to understand the complex historical backdrop of the Middle East. The region has long been marked by cycles of war, uprisings, and deep-seated rivalries, particularly following the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire and the founding of the State of Israel in 1948. The ensuing decades saw recurrent wars, the Palestinian diaspora, and persistent disputes over territory and national identity.
As Henry Kissinger observed, the Middle Eastern conflict is “as much religious as it is geopolitical,” with a Sunni bloc (Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, Egypt, and Turkey) facing off against a Shia bloc led by Iran, which supports Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza. The growing influence of Iran, especially after the intervention of Russia in Syria and the victories of pro-Iranian forces in Iraq, created a corridor from Tehran to Beirut, perceived as a direct threat by Israel, the US, and Saudi Arabia.
In this climate of tension, the Abraham Accords emerged as a bold attempt—championed by the Trump administration—to break with the patterns of the past and build a future of peace and prosperity. The agreements were facilitated by a combination of pragmatic leadership among some Arab states, shared concerns over Iran’s regional ambitions, and a mutual interest in economic growth and stability.
The Immediate Impact: Security, Dialogue, and Economic Growth
Since their signing, the Abraham Accords have had a profound impact on the Middle East and Mediterranean. Most immediately, they have opened new opportunities for cooperation and dialogue between Israel and its new Arab partners. In terms of security, the normalization of relations has created a common front against regional threats such as terrorism and nuclear proliferation. Intelligence sharing and joint security initiatives have become routine, strengthening the anti-Iran axis in the region.
The Accords have also fostered intercultural dialogue and mutual understanding, with cultural exchanges, educational projects, and public diplomacy initiatives helping to break down stereotypes and build trust among neighboring peoples. Economically, the agreements have led to a surge in trade, investment, and joint ventures in sectors such as energy, tourism, and infrastructure. According to the Abraham Accords Peace Institute and the RAND Foundation, the Accords could generate up to $1 trillion in new economic activity and create as many as 4 million jobs over the next decade, contributing significantly to regional recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.
Building on the momentum of the Abraham Accords, the United States has promoted the U2+I2 Group—comprising the US, Israel, UAE, and India. This initiative aims to extend the benefits of cooperation from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific, creating a strategic arc that links Western and Eastern Eurasia. The India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC), launched during the G20 summit led by India, is a key component of this strategy, potentially altering the regional balance of power in favor of the US and its allies.
The U2+I2 Group leverages the strengths and complementarities of its members to address global challenges and promote regional prosperity through joint initiatives in water, energy, transport, space, health, and food security. This network not only strengthens security but also opens new avenues for development and prosperity, positioning the Middle East as a bridge between Europe and Asia.
The Abraham Accords Amid the Iran-Israel War
The current war between Iran and Israel highlights both the fragility and the necessity of the Abraham Accords. Iran’s strategy of supporting non-state actors and extending its influence through proxies such as Hezbollah and Hamas has heightened fears among Arab states of regional destabilization. The Abraham Accords, therefore, are not just about Israel-Arab normalization; they represent a broader coalition of moderate states seeking stability and security in the face of Iranian expansionism.
The recent Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023, widely interpreted as an attempt to derail the regional integration process, underscores the stakes involved. Iran and its allies sought to abort a regional alignment that threatened to further integrate Israel into the Middle East. The US and Israel, however, have operated on the premise that Iran should not have a veto over the region’s future, leading to the current escalation.
Economic and Social Benefits: A New Interdependence
Beyond security, the Abraham Accords have unleashed a wave of economic activity. Trade between Israel and the Gulf states has surged, with new partnerships in technology, energy, tourism, and infrastructure. The normalization has also led to increased foreign direct investment (FDI), joint ventures, and collaborative projects that contribute to the region’s development and resilience.
Socially, the Accords have encouraged cultural exchanges, educational initiatives, and greater people-to-people contact. This “soft diplomacy” is critical for breaking down stereotypes and building mutual understanding—a foundation for lasting peace.
Challenges: The Palestinian Question and Regional Dynamics
Despite their many achievements, the Abraham Accords have not resolved the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which remains central to regional peace. Many Palestinians view the normalization as a betrayal of their cause, fearing it will sideline their aspirations for statehood. Some analysts argue that the Accords have marginalized the Palestinian issue, while others see them as an opportunity to revive the peace process under new conditions.
The Accords have also intensified the rivalry with Iran, which perceives the growing alliance between Israel and Sunni Arab states as a direct threat. The ongoing Iran-Israel war underscores the fragility of the region’s security architecture and the urgent need for inclusive diplomatic solutions.
The Role of Other Global and Regional Actors
The Abraham Accords have also reshaped the strategies of other major powers. Russia’s presence in Syria, China’s mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and Turkey’s independent stance all reflect the shifting dynamics of the region. The Accords have prompted new alignments and competition, but also opportunities for multilateral cooperation.
Europe and Italy, for example, can play significant roles as economic partners and diplomatic facilitators, leveraging their historical ties and geographic proximity to the region.
The Promise of a Peaceful Future
Despite the ongoing conflict and unresolved issues, the Abraham Accords stand as a beacon of hope. They demonstrate that dialogue and cooperation are possible, even in a region long defined by mistrust and conflict. The Accords have already shifted the balance of power, uniting Israel and moderate Arab states against extremist threats and creating a counterweight to Iranian influence.
Crucially, the Accords offer a model for future regional integration. The involvement of the United States and the formation of the U2+I2 Group further extend this network, linking the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific and Europe. This strategic alignment not only enhances security but also opens new avenues for development and prosperity.
Conclusion
If nurtured and expanded, the Abraham Accords could very well be the blueprint for a peaceful and prosperous Middle East. Their success will depend on the willingness of regional actors to address outstanding issues, integrate new alliances, and promote inclusive development. The path to peace is fraught with challenges, but the Accords offer a pragmatic and hopeful alternative—a model for regional integration that could transform the Middle East for generations to come.
The Abraham Accords have inaugurated a new phase in Middle Eastern relations, with positive effects on the economy, security, and regional cooperation. Their sustainability, however, will depend on the ability to address ongoing challenges, especially the Palestinian issue and tensions with Iran and other regional actors. If nurtured and expanded, the Accords could become the blueprint for a peaceful and prosperous Middle East.