Philosophy: Neurology: Astronomy: An Essay on Continuity and an Awareness of
Realities: Responsibilities of Science PART III of IV by Tetsuo Kaneko, Inst.Gov. Technical
Adviser Chiba-ken, Japan Editor’s Note: The paper featured
here is Part III of a four-part paper. Parts I & II were featured in
the two previous issues of this Journal. - JP The
Solar System is moving now outside of a galactic spiral arm of the Milky Way
where the intensity of the galactic cosmic ray flux is lower than inside
it. During the passage of the Solar
System through a galactic spiral arm, the effect of the galactic cosmic ray
flux allows the Earth to encounter an ice age [1-3]. Now, the effect is not expected to cool the
Earth. The effect cannot help to reduce
unpleasant nonlinear responses to emissions of CO2 caused [4] by the
combustion of fossil fuels. The effect
cannot contribute to reducing any additional entropy. The
whole planetary environment is not a completely closed system. People may be made to think that this fact
gives no evidence of caring about the second law of thermodynamics, and the
fact may make the people pleased by a subjective reason why the necessity to
minimize an increase in the entropy may be denied. Certainly, entertaining imagination results from
the expectation that a great technological treatment beyond all the scientific
knowledge establishes an attractive situation where the second law of
thermodynamics is broken down while even the impossibility of making a
perpetual motion machine exist is overturned.
People can be amused at the expectation.
However, the possibility that the imagination helps people to recognize
the various realities of the Earth must remain extremely low, no matter how
entertaining the imagination is. Thus, being
free from the imagination has to be helped. The consciousness harmonizing with the various
realities of the Earth has to be supported in order to allow of continuing to
enjoy the civilization. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) insists that an international
treaty should be designed to protect the equilibrium state reached in the
ecological system from anthropogenic emissions of CO2. Warming
the planetary surface is necessary. When
an object being an ideal thermally conductive blackbody is located at the same
distance as that of the Earth from the Sun [5], if about 28% of the incoming
sunlight is reflected from its surface, being the same as the reflectivity of
the surface of the Earth, the average temperature on the surface of the object should
be about −18 °C. However, the
temperature on the surface of the Earth is approximately 15 °C on average [6]. This temperature is about 33 °C higher than
that on the surface of the above object. Specific substances called greenhouse gases
play a greatly important role for keeping the temperature on the surface of the
Earth [7]. Each
molecule constituting greenhouse gases in the air can absorb infrared radiation
emitted from the surface of the Earth.
The molecules that are excited by the absorption of the infrared
radiation can emit infrared radiation both toward the Earth’s surface and
toward the space. Then, the probability
toward the Earth’s surface is the same as the probability toward the space. The infrared radiation that has been emitted from
the surface of the Earth goes partially back to the surface for molecules constituting
greenhouse gases. This phenomenon called
the greenhouse effect is warming the surface of the Earth. The greenhouse effect is preventing the
entire Earth from being frozen as a snowball, so that it is allowed to live
there comfortably. Water
vapor (H2O) in the air causes the largest contribution to the
greenhouse effect [8], and its degrees are between 36% and 66% for clear sky
conditions and between 66% and 85% when including clouds. Carbon dioxide (CO2) in the air
causes the second largest contribution to the greenhouse effect [8], and its
degree is between 9 and 26%. Methane (CH4)
in the air causes the third largest contribution to the greenhouse effect [9],
and its degree is between 4 and 9%. Ozone
(O3) in the air causes the fourth largest contribution to the
greenhouse effect [9], and its degree is between 3 and 7% . The
largest portion of greenhouse gases coming from anthropogenic emissions is
occupied by CO2. The second
largest portion is methane. The third
largest portion is nitrous oxide (N2O). The fourth largest portion is fluorinated
gases as symbolized by chlorofluorocarbons.
Measurements
from Antarctic ice cores show that before industrial emissions started, the
atmospheric mole fractions of CO2 had remained values near 280 parts
per million (ppm). The principally
natural sinks of CO2 are the dissolving of CO2 molecules
into the oceans and photosynthesis of carbohydrate molecules that is performed
by plants and marine plankton. If
emissions of CO2 from natural sources are in equilibrium with the natural
sinks of CO2, the concentration of CO2 remains constant
in the atmosphere. Even for the 10,000
years between the end of the last glacial maximum and the start of the
industrial era, the values remained between 260 ppm and 280 ppm [10]. In
the air, carbon dioxide has a variable and long atmospheric lifetime, which is
a period for decreasing to its half amount. The atmospheric lifetime of CO2 is
estimated in the 30–95 year range [11]. Thus, CO2 molecules can be easily
accumulated in the atmosphere with resisting being removed from there. In fact, the concentration (mole fraction) of
CO2 in the atmosphere has increased from 280 ppm to 380 ppm since
the beginning of the Industrial Revolution taken as the year 1750. First, 50 ppm of increase in the
concentration of CO2 took place in about 200 years, from the start
of the Industrial Revolution to around 1973.
Next, 50 ppm of increase in the concentration of CO2 took
place only in about 33 years, from 1973 to 2005 [12]. Recently, the reduction of the potentiality
of natural sinks of CO2 that is caused by deforestation and forest
degradation allows the concentration of CO2 to increase at a higher
rate. The reduction of forests is
cooperating with anthropogenic emissions of CO2 caused by more
combustion of fossil fuels. In 2012, the
atmospheric concentration of CO2 reached 392.6 ppm [13] and now is
400 ppm in the northern hemisphere [12]. If
an increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 raises the
atmospheric temperature, increasing the atmospheric concentration of CO2
strengthens the contribution of water vapor to the greenhouse effect. At a more raised temperature, more water
vapor per unit volume in the air can exist as is explained by the
Clausius–Clapeyron relation. When
increases in the amounts of the other greenhouse gases in the air increase
temperature, an increase in the temperature allows the concentration of water
vapor in the air to increase in each region over the marine field occupying
361.132 million km2 being equivalent to about 70.8% of the planetary
surface. An increase in the
concentration of water vapor allows a temperature reached for first rising to
be raised again. Then, the rising of
temperature allows a concentration of water vapor reached for first rising to
increase again. These nonlinear
responses to the first increase in the other greenhouse gases including CO2
can result in the amplification of warming owing to the contribution of water
vapor. Asking someone what can be caused
by the amplification should be encouraged.
Thinking about events that can be induced by the nonlinearity of the
amplification should be encouraged. Unexpected
nonlinear responses that can be caused by an increase in the concentration of
CO2 in the air should not remain unknown. The
atmospheric concentration of CO2 only does not increase, but the
atmospheric concentrations of other greenhouse gases also increase. Even if the potentiality of vaporization of
methane from methane-hydrate laid on the bottom of sea can be realistically
neglected, an increase in the amount of garbage contributing to the
fermentation process raises the atmospheric concentration of methane (CH4).
The atmospheric concentration of CH4
[13] has already increased from 0.722 ppm to 1.893 ppm [14] / 1.762 ppm [14]
since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Certainly, the concentration of methane in the
air is much lower than that of CO2.
However, the fact that the greenhouse effect of a mass of methane is
about 72 times stronger than the same mass of CO2 is remarkable [15]. A greenhouse gas of which the atmospheric
concentration [13] has increased from 0.270 ppm to 0.326 ppm [14] / 0.324 ppm
[14] is nitrous oxide (N2O).
Agricultural activities that involve the use of fertilizers contribute
to an increase in the atmospheric concentration of N2O. Various increases in the concentrations of
the greenhouse gases in the air permit both the temperature of sea water and
the amount of water vapor in the air to increase on average. Liquid
water has the largest specific heat, so that warmed sea water most resists
reducing its temperature. The
temperatures of oceans are significant factors that make convection occur in
the planetary atmosphere. The convection
causes streams of air to occur. The
streams of air are allowed to carry water vapor in large amount. Ultimately, the temperatures of sea surfaces become
major determinants of weather. Convection
in the planetary atmosphere is caused to occur by the gravitation and the
differences between the surface temperatures of various regions including
seas. The directions of streams of air and
their strengths are strongly influenced by several factors, i.e., thermodynamic
factors such as the extent of areas covered with ice, the amount of ice, and
the amount of radiation energy from the sun; geographical factors such as the
positions of regions covered with ice and the positions and heights of
mountains; geological factors such as the rotating speed of the Earth. Weather is characterized as nonlinear
responses that are influenced strongly by these factors and the differences
between the surface temperatures. Ultimately,
the strength of greenhouse effect that is an important factor determining both the
temperatures of oceans and the temperatures on the surfaces of the continents
becomes a crucial factor influencing weather on the Earth. Even
if it is not easy to recognize unexpected nonlinear responses that can be induced
by an increase in the concentration of CO2 in the air, the general
circulation of a planetary atmosphere model and the general circulation of a
ocean model allow the nonlinear responses to be estimated computationally on a
basis of the Navier–Stokes equations with considering a rotating planetary
sphere, thermodynamics, and various energy sources. Then, the energy sources that should be
thermodynamically considered correspond to radiation coming from the sun, the
latent heat on the transition between ice and liquid water, the other latent
heat on the transition between liquid water and water vapor, etc. The use of the time-dependent Navier–Stokes
equations and a model planet divided into three-dimensional grids constructing
multi layers allows a climate model to be established as a method for mathematically
and numerically estimating the global circulation. The climate model can quantitatively simulate
the interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice. Computations of the climate model allow
values of pressure, values of temperature, pressure gradient forces, winds,
heat transfer, infrared radiation, relative humidity, and surface hydrology to be
evaluated within each grid [16]. The
climate model is capable of reproducing the general features of the observed
global temperature over the past century [17,18]. An
atmospheric general-circulation-model (GCM) based on the above procedure can
realistically depict monthly and seasonal patterns of atmospheric processes
involving atmospheric chemistry in the troposphere. An oceanic GCM based on the above procedure can
realistically depict monthly and seasonal patterns of oceanic processes. A coupling of an atmospheric GCM and an
oceanic GCM allows a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM)
to be formed. Various AOGCMs formed by
such couplings are helping to understand the behavior of the climate system and
to predict future temperature changes and the dependence of climate change on
the atmospheric concentration of CO2 [18]. Warming
globally is discerned from various signs. These signs are exemplified by loss of
biodiversity [19], changes in habitable zones for biological species [20], a
geological change in the distribution of areas covered by ice, and regional changes
in agricultural productivity. The signs
are exemplified also by the occurrence of extreme weather events that have a
tendency to increase their frequencies and their severities [21]. The tendency to increase the frequencies and
the severities agrees with the behavior of model climate systems that correlates
with a rise in the atmospheric temperature [20]. Increasing
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases raises the possibility that
raising globally atmospheric temperatures changes the global climate
system. The IPCC recommends avoiding
serious climate change that is shown as predictions of future climate based on
various scenarios [22]. According to IPCC, predictions due to several climate
models show that the temperature change to 2100 is estimated between 2 and 4.5
°C as the mean global response to an idealized scenario (A2 scenario) in which
CO2 is increased at 1% per year [23]. Such temperature change depends on scenarios that
describe rates of increases in CO2 emissions [23]. In a scenario (B1 scenario) where global
emissions start to decrease by 2010 and then decline at a sustained rate of 3%
per year, a predicted increase in the global average temperature is 1.7 °C
above pre-industrial levels by 2050, and is around 2 °C by 2100 [24]. In a future where any efforts to reduce global
emissions continue to not be made, a predicted increase in the global average
temperature is between 5 °C and 6 °C by 2100 [25]. Certainly,
there are climate prediction uncertainties depending on various unknown factors
[26]. Clouds reflect sunlight back into
space, and also allow infrared radiation emitted from the planetary surface to
go back to the surface [27]. The
complicated contributions of clouds are not perfectly parameterized for
calculating. More precise climate
predictions must be accomplished by replying both a specific necessity of more
realistically applying chemistry and physics to the models and another specific
necessity of more physically consistent coupling between atmosphere and ocean
models. Dramatically biological and
geological changes in marine systems must be triggered when the strength of the
greenhouse effect reaches the threshold. This nonlinear phenomenon is not easy for
being more precisely predicted. In
addition, the climate prediction uncertainties come even from the fact that
several factors making climate change more serious are not considered. Future scenarios do not include specific
events, such as volcanic eruptions, the cooperation of strengthened solar
activities with the greenhouse effect, the vaporization of methane from
methane-hydrate, and so on. The
possibility that a situation where several events or phenomena cooperate with
each other strengthens the greenhouse effect is unknown, but it cannot be ignored.
Solar sunspot maximum occurs when the
magnetic field of the sun collapses, and the maximum reverses as part of its
average 11 year solar cycle. The possibility that the solar
sunspot maximum cooperates with other events rises in an approximately 11 year
cycle. The possibility that future
technology, future breakthroughs, characteristics of future industrial systems linked
with breakthroughs, and characteristics of future economical systems linked
with technological conditions contribute positively cannot be denied, but it remains
unknown. Certainly, an international will
to aid the continuation of the technological civilization is clear. Therefore, model simulations of climate should
continue to be improved to know about the future meaning of our current
behavior and to prepare any actions if they are necessary. Even
if uncertainties included in scientific predictions encourages an effect of
anthropogenic emissions of CO2 to global warming to be denied
strongly, the sharp acceleration that has occurred in CO2 emissions
since 2000 results in the increase rate of more than 2 ppm per year. This suggests that the mind is strongly concentrated
on an interest in examining the stability of the equilibrium, i.e., in
examining to what degree the equilibrium remains resistant to increasing
emissions of CO2. The mind
must allow the equilibrium state of the planetary environment to firmly shift
by continually increasing emissions of a greenhouse gas CO2. If
the mind is strongly focused on an interest in attempt to continue to examine the
stability, the existence of various factors that can cooperate in steeply making
the equilibrium collapse at the threshold should always be considered on a
basis of scientific warning.
Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, etc. are not phenomena that gradually
evolve, and they are nonlinear phenomena that suddenly occur when states inhibiting
them from occurring reach their thresholds. In general, a specific phenomenon that
proceeds with involving many elements cooperating with each other remains
unclear before the degree of cooperative effects reaches the threshold, but the
phenomenon can suddenly appear at the threshold. Daily
experiences must continue to allow the mind to remain confident of denying nonlinear
phenomena that nonlinear responses caused by cooperative effects make
occur. Hence, if science does not enable
cerebral activity to become free from the recognitions coming from daily experiences,
and does not help us to become independent of subjective images, then, scientific
understanding will become of no value. Unless
science contributes to awareness for helping to continually enjoy the
civilization, the meaning of efforts to continue to make scientific
consequences more precise will be unclear. Unless predictions based on scientific activities
have potentialities for helping ways of recognizing to be developed or potentialities
for helping ways of thinking to change for going toward images being the
nearest to realities of the environment surrounding everyone, scientific
investigations and researches do not keep value for helping the continuation of
the civilization. Technology
always helps to strengthen desires to give technological realities to images
being born from the consciousness formed through daily experiences. Science should always continue to make efforts
to reveal unknown realities independent of images being born from the consciousness
dependent on daily experiences. A
viewpoint exemplified by the above that contrasts science with technology must offer
potential for preserving agricultural productivity, biodiversity, and the
equilibrium reached on the planet. The
use of technology to which advanced scientific consequences are applied can sometimes
require everyone to ask seriously whether ways of thinking should be reasonably
changed or not. Efforts to continue to allow
of generating an acceptable situation where the civilization can be continually
enjoyed becomes more important than an expectation of the civilization that will
be continually simply. Science must
execute its responsibility for the necessity of revealing unknown realities corresponding
to specific images that do not belong to the psychological territory of
consciousness crystallized by daily experiences. Fortunately,
while enjoying pleasant moments, the brain consisting of over 100 billion
neurons is capable of making cerebral activity independent of enjoying
them. Understanding both the scientific
basis of risk of human-induced climate change and its potential impacts is
deepened, accompanying adaptation and mitigation [28]. Accessing the current understanding of these
subjects is available for everyone through reports supporting
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The reports are produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), which is a scientific intergovernmental body under the auspices
of the United Nations. Delegates from the governments of more than
120 countries participate in IPCC activities, and thousands of scientists and
other experts contribute on a voluntary basis to writing and reviewing reports. These facts allow everyone to have confidence
in a way of continuing to enjoy the civilization with allowing of preserving
the equality between the current generations and far future generations. While caring about consciousness born in the
brain, the brain is capable of making cerebral activity become independent of
the consciousness. Even assuming that an
optimistically and hopefully economic future dependent on advanced technology
is strongly expected, potentialities for carefully avoiding allowing the
equilibrium reached in the planetary ecological system to collapse are raised
by an international will. Editor’s Note: This concludes
Part III of this four-part paper. Parts IV will be featured in the
following issue of this Journal. - JP Acknowledgments
The
author wishes to think Dr. J. L. Bernhart for having valuable discussions about
roles of science and giving valuable suggestions on the manuscript, and Dr. A. Kharrazi
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2014-12-15. About the Author: Tetsuo
Kaneko is a Member of the Board of Governors of the Institute for Positive
Global Solutions and the BWW Society. Born on November 3, 1953, in Chiba-ken,
Japan, he studied physics and chemistry at Chuo University, earning a Bachelor
of Science degree in 1977 and 1980, respectively. He pursued postgraduate work
at the same university, and received a Master’s degree in 1984 for his study on
the force acting upon an ion in an ion-channel. Mr.
Kaneko began his professional career as an Assistant for experiments being conducted
at Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute from 1978 to 1980. He then went on to
become a Radiation Protection Supervisor for Koto Microbe Laboratory from 1980
to 1982, a Staff Member for Technical Surveys of Japan at NUS Co. Ltd. from
1985 to 1987, and an Assistant for Environmental Measure performed by Tokyo
Food Sanitation Association from 1987 to 1993. Mr. Kaneko also served as an Assistant
for experiments at Seikei University from 1990 to 1993, a part-time Lecturer at
Medic Bio College from 1994 to 1995, a Technical Assistant for IAI Corporation
from 1995 to 1997, a PC Operator for DIS System Trading Co. Ltd. from 1997 to
2000, and a Technical Advisor to Kurakenchikuzoukeisha Co. Ltd. since 2000. Since
1996 Mr. Kaneko’s main interest has consisted of studying percolation in fluids,
focusing his attention on density fluctuations, which are induced as both dense
and rare regions of particles by attractive forces reacting between particles
in fluids. This concept stems from how the generation of a developed non-uniform
distribution of particles in a fluid can cause anomalies in properties such as
viscosities, electrical and optical properties of metal fluids, electrical
conductivities due to charged particles, the thermodynamics, and so on. For his
own percolation estimates, each dense region has been regarded as a physical
cluster composed of particles constituting each bound pair satisfying a
criterion expressed as “what the sum of the relative kinetic energy and pair potential
requires to be negative”. In 1998, Mr. Kaneko was successful in demonstrating
that such a physical cluster formed by an attractive force, with the effective
range being long enough, has a developed fractal structure with the dimension
1.5. Each percolation phenomenon, due to the growth of dense regions to the
infinite size, was estimated analytically using a Yukawa-type potential(s). The
results of the percolation estimates were published for single-component Yukawa
fluids in 1998, Coulomb fluids in 1999, and multi-component fluid mixtures in
2001. Aside
from his vocational duties, Mr. Kaneko holds memberships in a variety of
organizations. He is a Life Member of the American Physical Society, and a
Member of the American Association for the Advancement of Sciences, Chemical
Society of Japan, New York Academy of Sciences, and the Physical Society of
Japan. His favorite leisure-time activities include watching soccer games,
making wood furniture, and mountain climbing. [ BWW Society Home Page ] © 2015 The Bibliotheque: World Wide Society |