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Population: Global Warming:
On World Overpopulation and Global Warming
by Dr. Julio A. Gonzalo, Professor of Physics and Dr. Félix F. Muñoz, Professor of Economics Universidad Autónoma Madrid, Spain
Link for Citation Purposes: https://bwwsociety.org/journal/archive/overpopulation-and-global-warming.htm |
On World Overpopulation and Global Warming
Julio A. Gonzalo and Félix F. Muñoz
Universidad Autónoma
Madrid, Spain
As shown in World
Population: Past, Present & Future (World Scientific: Singapore
2016), Science (November 4, 1960) published an article by Heinz
von Foerster, Patricia M. Mora and Lawrance W. Amiot in which human population
would approach infinity on the Friday, November 13, A. D. 2026, if growing as
it was in the last two millennia. We are in A. D. 2024 and human population,
after growing from A.D. 1900 to A.D. 1980, is leveling again around A.D. 2050.
According to these authors assume that the rate of growth is given arbitrary by
with 
.
Forty years later,
Wolfgang Lutz, Sanderson and Scherbov published in Nature (2001)
a paper concluding that the end of population growth is likely to come in about
A.D. 2050 extrapolating UN population data for the case of low feminine
fertility. Further, in A.D. 2013 a rate equation approach to world
population published by J.A. Gonzalo, Félix F. Muñoz and D.J. Santos implied
that a step up growth in population is proportional to 
where 
1980, 
43.6 years, 
, assuming a
replacement level population 
just before the
step up in population.
In 2021 it was published the 3rd edition of Hot Talk, Cold Science whose author is Professor Fred Singer, distinguished astro-physicist on climate change. S. Fred Singer was one of the world’s prominent authorities on energy and environmental issues. He was a pioneer in rocket and weather satellite technology. Also the author of more than 400 technical articles in scientific journals, and as many popular articles in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, The New York Times and the Washington Post. He concludes that the warming from 1910 to 1945 was real. It was confirmed by thermometer records as well as other data, but it occurred before human greenhouse emissions could have caused it. But the warming which occurred from 1978 to 1997 is almost entirely fake, an instrumental artifact based only on manipulated and unreadable surface observations. He predicted also that the global sea level world rise about 6 inches by 2100, too little to be a risk to future generations. He concluded also that many policy Obama-era regulations such as the Clean Power Plan, should be withdrawn. And that the USA should withdraw from the Paris Agreement in view of the real science of climate change.
As Frederick Seitz, President Emeritus, Rockefeller University and Past President, National Academy of Sciences, says in the foreward to the 1st and 2nd editions of Hot Talk, Cold Science:
At the core of Fred Singer's argument of the global warming issue is a desire to more fully understand the mechanisms that cause climate to change –in response to natural or made-man forcing– and perhaps more important, to secure a place for science outside the realm of selfish bureaucracy on the reach of irrational environmentalism.
It is one thing to impose drastic measures and hard economic policies when an environmental problem is clear cut and severe. It is quite another to do when the environment problem is largely hypothetical and not substantiated by careful observations.
Rural temperature/Solar Output vs t
Let us conclude briefly with the following considerations about the so-called world population explosion taken from World Population: Past, Present & Future:
1) The exponential growth in human world population assumed by many experts is totally unrealistic.
2) Population policies should not be manipulated by anti-natalistic policymakers convinced that they know better.
3) Today the world is not overpopulated and it is unlikely to remain so in the foreseeable future.
In Asia, the continent with the most densely populated countries (Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore…) the Gross National Income is several times higher than the World Average Gross Income.
4) Extrapolating World population trends as given by the UN shows that the World population may reach a maximum of 8.4 billion, rather than 7.73 billion by 2050 and a gradual decrease afterwards is not unlikely.
5) Very important: The very substantial step up in world population which took place from 1900 to 2050 was due to the sustained decrease in death rate (associated to a corresponding increase in life expectancy) rather than to a (non-existent) increase in fertility/birth rate.
On the other hand, let us quote properly what is said in Global Warming’s Unfinished Debate, Revisited and Expanded Third Edition:
This book forms the capstone of the distinguished astrophysicist S. Fread Singer’s hard scientific look at the climate change. And the book is no less explosive than its predecessor and more timely.
Singer explores the inaccuracies in historical climate data and the failures of climate models, as well as the impact of solar variability, clouds, ocean currents, and sea levels on global climate plus factors that could mitigate any human impact on world climate.
As alarmists clamor to impose draconian government restrictions on entire populations in order to combat “climate change”, this book revels some startling, stubborn contradictory facts, including:
· CO2 has not caused temperatures or sea levels to rise beyond historical rates.
· Severe storms have not increased in frequency or intensity since 1970 –neither have heat waves nor droughts.
· Global “climate change” is not harming coral reefs.
· United Nations climate scientists hid their raw temperature data, deleted emails –then undermined the peer-review system to squelch debate.
In sum, despite the hot talk –and outright duplicity– there is no “climate crisis” resulting from human activities and no such a thing on the horizon.
With assistance from climate scientists David R. Legates and Anthony R. Lupo, Singer’s Hot talk, Cold Science is an essential, clear-headed book of scope and substance that no one who claims to value science, the environment, and human well-being can afford to ignore.
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References
M. J. Kelly (2013). Why a collapse of global civilization will be avoided: a comment on Ehrlich & Ehrlich, Proc. R. Soc., V. 282 I. 1802
P.R. Ehrlich, A. Ehrlich (2013). Can a collapse of global civilization be arrived? Proc. R. Soc. B 280, 20122845
J. A. Gonzalo, F. F. Muñoz (2014). Prospects of world population decline in the near future: a short note. Departamento de Análisis Económico, UAM, Madrid.
J.A. Gonzalo. F. F. Muñoz, D.J. Santos (2012). Using a rate equations approach to model world population trends. Simulation 89(2), 192-198.
S.F. Singer, David R. legates and Anthony R. Lupo (2021). Hot Talk, Cold Science. Revised and Expanded Third Edition.